I'm not sold on this one

So Johnson and Johnson is trying to get a discount on their attempt to buy a majority stake in Elan corp (originally set at $1 billion dollars, who wouldn't want a discount with that chunk of change?).  The word is that J&J is very interested in Elan's Alzheimer's pipeline as well as the other offerings in Elan's realm (see the Elan Pipeline here).  Exhibit A for Elan is Tysabri, the potent immunomodulating drug approved for a variety of autoimmune conditions, most notably Multiple Sclerosis.  As we know, Tysabri was recently put back on the market with a number of restrictions and risk management guidelines because of a possible correlation between Tysabri and a rare viral brain infection called PML. 

These risk management guidelines have helped to quell the number of cases of PML, but the infection continues to pop up in patients using Tysabri at frequencies that are not seen naturally.  It seems that you can't go but a few weeks without hearing of another case of PML in a Tysabri user, so I would not be surprised if the use of Tysabri is culled once again at some point in the future.  If I was J&J, I would try to find a way to leave Tysabri alone, even though it is an extremely profitable medication...it just seems a little risky given the past history of the medication.  The other thing worth mentioning is that Elan is currently teamed up with Biogen to market Tysabri, so if J&J really wants a part of the drug they'll have to work with Biogen as well.  This was attempted recently, and it did not go well (Fierce Pharma Report).

For my own purposes though, J&J's stake in Elan looks good, just so long as something is done about the potential arrangement to market Tysabri. 

In other news, more optimism for Vivus's Qnexa:  Get on the train before it leaves the station!